About two years ago, I entered a decline in my day trading. I decided for you to hunt the internet, and I found many day trading chats there. One by one, I signed up for trial offers to see what they were regarding. I had never been in a speech room before.
After finding myself in a few rooms, my effect was that the room members sought a leader, some sort of guru, someone with advice. I guess I was, too, though I already had with regard to thirty years of trading right behind me. I’d like to think it was usually more wondering than looking for advice. Most of the room members looked very naive. I’m sure that they thought they’d be given an indicator or method that might allow them to start making money instantly. The other thing I noticed instantly was the ego of the moderators. They spoke with great authority and suggested in their way of trading was the only way. Only among the answer. And the room people in each of the rooms did agree.
I did not see very much new in any of these suites. Each one had some kind of track or special oscillator. A number had a black field approach, where you were likely just to sit there waiting for the moderator to call up the trades. I did not view many winning trades through the little time I spent in these rooms. From what I saw, I doubted if any of these people ever made out-of-pocket trading. I kept moving forward.
Eventually, I came upon the free chat room. Free was interesting. How does it be free? They have to be selling something. We logged on.
I heard the actual voice of a very relaxed, relaxed man that experienced just taken a huge success out of one of the stock catalog futures. Dozens of traders congratulated the moderator for your winning trade, but more for such a great miracle indicator and all the fantastic trading patterns from this indicator.
The magic indicator was introduced around 80, but this moderator experienced some interesting improvements along the way it was displayed and the designs it produced. And the space was not only free; there was a charity involved. They asked everyone to give money a little out of their payout. How could anyone criticize any situation that was done for charity?
Typically the moderator made the which he invented the use of patterns as an indicator. They renamed all the habits, but I recognized many patterns that were well written about in many old books. They just put unknown labels on existing patterns. Typically the newest traders did not recognize these were old patterns. Not anyone questioned anything in this place.
Despite nothing new below, it seemed he does an excellent job of categorizing many different patterns and getting them all together into a deal that would be more readily attainable to new traders. So that ended up being good. And many good concepts were offered about trading in general and dollar management. Also, the speech room was upbeat along with positive. Most of the previous chats I attended were damaging and angry. I thought I would continue.
I spent the subsequent few months learning as much as I really could. As much as I wanted to believe he’d wisdom worth listening to, plus a viable approach, many things started bothering me. A single was his insistence that his indicator could business lead price. An indicator that is a price derivative cannot lead to the price. That’s simply mathematically impossible. Another was his insistence that you cannot watch prices while trading. Exactly what?! You cannot see what you are investing? If you were driving a car, could you cover up the windshield? The folks in this room would in case he told them to.
I had a hard time believing that almost a thousand people would acknowledge everything being said. Taking it so readily. Had they all been drinking Kool-Aid? It was an interesting study on the need to believe in a leader, an expert. Someone that can help make desires come true.
But I persevered. His trading results looked more encouraging compared to mine. I would obtain the recaps after the market near their available days. Nearly every trade within the recap was profitable. We tried to write down the investments as they were being called, then tried to reconcile them from the recap after the market was sealed. But I began to see in the recap that the earning trades were cautiously selected from the real-time comments. Yet again, nobody questioned any of this kind. Was I the only one who noticed the discrepancies?
Now I decided to do my examination. I had been in the room long enough to learn every pattern and every ton. I was good at programming and had the data to test. I got each pattern individually. Thus, I could find which patterns possessed good or encouraging behaviors. For my tests Choice, I needed thousands of samples. The choice to test each pattern is about five years of data, breaking them into one-year segments. I was only looking for good tendencies along with robustness.
After programming every little thing, I tested the alerts by hand, just to make sure this programming caught all the alerts based on the rules and would not create signals that shouldn’t have been there.
After spending months and reams of papers for my printouts, I discovered that non-e of the designs resulted in a profit in the previous five years when tested mechanically. The pattern was touted because winning 90% of the time, lost money, and had less than 30% successful trades in many years. Results on the remaining patterns were less dependable than the flip of a gold coin, far less in most cases.
To summarize the testing: nothing worked. Nothing came close to a good propensity.
I tried to tell others in the room about my investigation and the dismal results. Many of them would not hear it. They did not need to hear the truth. They were as well invested in the method and needed to believe they would eventually achieve success if only they would hang on more time and learn that secret just around the corner. But most of these individuals stayed in the room; some have been in for years and showered congratulations to the actual moderator for the great investments and great magic, top indicator. Did they look at their account phrases?
You might assume my period spend in this room is some sort of a waste of time. Maybe I think that this guru did hold the answer to trading success. That I knew of better than to expect this. Typically the sad part is that many other people don’t know better. They can be told something they want anxiously to believe, and they believe the idea. They do not test drive it. They do not question it. Consider blindly. They invest much time and money, and then they work through the point where they simply want to consider. Now they are too used, and they have to believe. They will neglect all common sense, specifics, and proof to keep dreams alive. I surely learned about psychology and the head of chat room professionals I compete with daily.